as some lame prospect AND a 29 year old rookie.  He's the latter but he's not the former. 


Weeden is a poor man's Troy Aikman with much better colllegiate seasoning.  He's got a compact delivery, he's more athletic, can make all the throws, makes quick decisions, is way ahead of the game in regards to changing plays at the LOS. 

It wasn't that long ago when teams drafted 22 -23 year old collegiate QBs with every intention of sitting them 3 or 4 years. So drafting a 28 year old isn't like drafting a 38 year old.  It's unusual for this day and age, but not at all out of the norm for the NFL history. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUbkSR4wtWI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...feature=related



And Weeden will not be there at 37.

I've heard this before.  The last one played for FSU.  Weinke, Chris.  Proto-type NFL QB, played Baseball and had a killer arm.

Not only that, Weeden didn't face the first Top 25 PPG Defense in the NCAA.  The best Scoring Defense he faced all season was Stanford, at 30th.  I've posted extensively on just how bad the Defenses these Cowboys played were all season on BleacherReport.  They beat 0 quality defenses.

I'm not saying he had to play Alabama or LSU to prove his worth, I'm saying playing somebody in the Top 25 of Scoring Defenses would have been nice.  We didn't see him play anybody.  Even Texas and Oklahoma, usually quality defenses, were bleeding points to teams.  He couldn't outscore Iowa State, 95th in Scoring Defense.

He better be balls out at the Combine... if not, he's done.  Wait... didn't Weinke show well at the combine too?

Not discounting Weeden, in fact I like the guy. But wether he's available at 37 is yet to be seen.

FAcy with where PM and Flynn end up will tell the tell on Weeden and how high he goes.

Manning to Miami and Flynn to Seattle, who's left to draft a QB?

Unless the Cards dump Kolb, they won't take a QB in the first. And if they do rid themselves of Kolb.....I can even say it, but you know what I mean.

And if Tannehill is there at 22, do the Browns take him?

Weeden could fall a long way, just depends.

Chris Weinke was NEVER a prototype NFL QB prospect.  Never.  He never had a killer arm.  He was a good college QB surrounded by ridiculous NFL talent at FSU.   He was a game manager there and nothing more. 


Weeden took an Oklahoma State team that regularly is not as good at most positions to 1 overtime loss from being in the National Championship game.   Outside Blackmon there aren't any superstars on the roster.  He put up 9000 yards in 2 seasons. 


The comparison between the 2 other than age is not even close to reality.

Weeden had possibly the #1 WR in the NCAA for 2 Seasons, playing Sub-par Defenses.  Not the first quality Defense last season, as far as Scoring Defense goes.

Let me break Weeden down for you.  
1.  ULL, 84th in Scoring Defense.  9-4, 6-2 in the Sun Belt.  Really good Sun Belt team... take that for what ever it may be worth.  Western Kentucky put over 40 on them, and Nichols State dropped 38. Weeden threw 3 Interceptions.  3 Interceptions against the ULL.  Blackmon, 8 for 144.  61 points dropped on the 84th Scoring D, 144 yards from Blackmon, and threw 3 INTs.

2.   Arizona, 107th in Scoring Defense.  4-8, 2-7 in Pac 12.  A horrible Pac 12 team.  Blackmon hauled in 12 for 128 and 2 TDs.  Foles went 1 TD and 0 INTs with 398 yards to Weeden and his 2 TD, 1 INT and 397 Yards.  37 on the 107th Scoring D, and threw another INT.

3.  Tulsa, 64th Scoring Defense.  8-5, 7-1 in CUSA.  Really good CUSA team... for what ever that's worth.  Weeden and his Cowboys put 59... Weeden throws 2 more INTs.

4.  Texas A&M, 70th in Scoring Defense.  7-6, 4-5 in Big XII... middle Big XII team.  OSU wins 30-29.  Weeden does have a phenomenal game here, and does outplay Tannehill.  Another huge game by Blackmon, 11 for 121 and a TD.  Again, on the 70th Scoring Defense.

5.   Kansas, 120th in Scoring Defense (last in NCAA) at 43.8 PPGA, 2-10, 0-9 in Big XII.  Worst Big XII team.  OSU scores 70.  Stupid good game on the worst D in the NCAA.  24 of 28, 288 Yards, 5 TD and 0 INT.  Again, while amazing... worst D in NCAA.  Blackmon, 8 for 84 and 2 of his TDs.  8 Teams put up over 40 on Kansas last season.

6.   Texas, 33rd in Scoring Defense.  8-5, 4-5 Big XII.  Tough to say this, middle Big XII team.  Weeden goes 23/41 with 218, 1 TD and 0 INT.  Not an amazing game.  Solid, something you'd expect from a Bama QB.  Faces a Top 35 Scoring Defense, suddenly he's not putting up Heisman numbers.  Puts up 38.

7.  Missouri, 44th in Scoring Defense.  7-6, 3-5 ACC, low ACC team.   Puts up 45, going 33/49 for 338, 3 TD and 1 INT.  

8.  Baylor, 113th in Scoring Defense.  10-3, 6-3 Big XII, solid Big XII team.  Drops 59 on the 113th Scoring Defense.  66% and 3 TDs, his 3 TD and 0 INTs outplays RG III and his 33/50 for 425, 1 TD and 2 INT.  Weeden's 274 Yards didn't beat Baylor, RB Randle going for 10.9 a Carry and 4 TDs did.  

9.  Kansas State, 68th in Scoring Defense.  10-3, 7-2 Big XII.  Good Big XII team.  Drops 52.  Weeden does 502 Yards... adds 4 TD, but 2 more INT.

10.  Texas Tech, 117th Scoring Defense.  5-7, 2-7 Big XII.  Lower Big XII team.  Drops 66 on the 117th Scoring D.  31/37 for 423 and 5 TDs to 0 INTs.  He really can destroy horrible defenses.

11. Iowa State, 82nd Scoring Defense.  6-7, 3-6 Big XII.  Lower Big XII Team.  LOSES to ISU, scores 31 in TWO Over Times and effectively chokes on the National Championship.  Had they won out, they go.  Losing to ISU cost them the big game.  While Weeden was 42/58 for 476 Yards and 3 TDs... his 3 INTs might have had something to do with the loss.

12. Oklahoma, 31st in Scoring Defense.  10-3, 6-3 Big XII.  Top Teir of Big XII.  This game was a shocker, Oklahoma didn't show up at all.  Drops 44 on the Sooners.  24/36, 217 Yards... 0 TD and 0 INT.  Faces another Top 40 Defense, doesn't throw a TD.

13.  Stanford, 30th Scoring Defense.  11-2, 8-1 Pac 12.  Top Teir of Pac 12.  Wins 41-38 in a classic.  29/42 for 399, 3 TD and 1 INT.  Andrew Luck went 27/31 for 347, 2 TD and 1 INT.  1 more TD and Andrew Luck has the better game, but since OSU won I'll tip the hat to Weeden.  This, by far, is his best game against a Top 40 Defense.

Texas, Oklahoma and Stanford are the only TOP 40 Scoring Defenses he played all year, with Missouri at 44th.  After Missouri you have to fall to 64th in Scoring Defense.

So, Weeden faced 1 Top 30 Scoring D.  He faced 3 Top 40s.  He faced 4 Top 50s.

Of those Top 40, he only had 1 impressive game... against Stanford.  His Texas game wasn't bad, and his % on Oklahoma wasn't bad but 0 TD.  He lit up the 107th, 113th, 117th and 120th Scoring Defenses.  1/3 of his Schedule was against the 20 Worst Defense in the NCAA.

He played 0 Legit Defenses.  Not the first Top 25 Scoring, and nothing nearing Top 10.

He threw multiple Interceptions against ULL (3), Tulsa (2), Kansas State (2), and Iowa State (3).  

I ask you, against what quality Defense did Weeden shows he can play QB?  He only really put up great numbers on one Top 30 Defense, played average against 2 Top 40 teams.  He did light up #44 Missouri, a Top 50 Defense.

He had (injured some of this season) possibly the #1 WR in the NCAA for 2 years, and he played no defenses worth mention.  I'd be more shocked if he didn't have a ton of stats.

Where, in this last season, did he show you he could play NFL caliber defenders?

It's the same conference RG3 played in.  It's the same conference Tannehill played in and they'll both be gone by 15 in the first round. 

Most really good teams only play a couple, usually less than a few really good teams.  Some years it's 1 or 2 more some years it's 1 or 2 less but nobody in college plays a murders row of teams.  


It's not an absolute barometer of what a kid can do at the professional level his collegiate schedule.  If that were the case nobody would be worth drafting because they all schedule directional school of no significance and have a plethora of conference can't plays.    And read ur insanity: 

61
37
59
30
70
38
45
59
52
66
31
44
41

2010:

65
41
65
38
54
31
44
55
33
48
41
36

And ur trying to blame that all on the level of his competition?  And listing multiple interceptions?  In 2 years as a starter he threw for 71 TDs and 26 picks and 70% completion.  And yes he had Blackmon, and not another player anybody except Mel Kiper knows by name. 

2 good games?  Dude, U need to watch some football.   I don't care if ur playing the sisters of the poor every week what Weeden did was impressive.  In 2 seasons he had only 1 game where his team scored less than 30 and that was 24.  He had 17 games where his team scored over 40 and only 8 where they scored under 40.   And some of those stats U posted are thru 3 quarters. 

Go compare his 2 years at OState to Manning's last 2 at Tenn or Matt Ryan's last 2 at BC or Stafford's at Georgia or Blaine Gabbert at Missou.   Cam Newton. 

http://www.sports-reference.co...-gabbert-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.co...stafford-1.html

http://www.peytonmanning18.com/collegestats.html

http://www.sports-reference.co...att-ryan-1.html

http://www.totalfootballstats.....asp?id=1210291


Don't tell me the difference between all of those guys and Weeden is because they played 6 or 7 or 8 elite defenses during school.

In 4 years as a starter Andy Dalton played against nobody particularly good and the few games he did have a strong opponent he had off games as well.  Dalton put up 10,300 and 70 TDs in 4 years.  Weeden put up 9200 and 71 in 2.  And Texas and OU might have had down years comparitively speaking but don't tell me they're SMU or Montana State. 

http://www.sports-reference.co...lton-1/gamelog/


If Weeden was 22 he would be a top 5 pick.

Manning played Top Defenses at Tennessee... as did his brother at Ole Miss.  Just like Stafford and Cam Newton.  These QBs faced tough defenses week in and week out, and had to deal with Top 10 Defenses.

RGIII has sprinters speed and the best deep ball in College.  Andrew Luck is Peyton Manning reincarnate.

Of the guys you named, they either were physically exceptional (RG III and Luck) or actually proved it against really solid defenses.  Show me 4 Games against the 100-120th ranked Scoring Defenses by Manning (either), Stafford or Newton.  Probably can't find 4 against that bad of a Defense in their Careers.

Now, the Top Defense Weeden faced was 30th in Scoring all season long.  In comparison, the SEC has Georgia 23rd in Scoring D, South Carolina 11th in Scoring D, Florida at 20th (in an off year at that), Vandy at 29th, Kentucky at 53rd (good for the 4th or 5th best Defense faced by OSU last season) and 36th by Tennessee... and that's the entire SEC East.  The worst was 53rd!

Want to try the West?  Alabama, #1.  LSU, #2. Arkansas #33.  Mississippi State #16.

Auburn 79th. Ole Miss 96th.

So in the SEC you have 3 Defenses not in the Top 50, with Kentucky being #53.  Kentucky would have been a Top 5 Defense Played for OSU, Auburn and Ole Miss would have been the average teams.

Weeden faced 1 Top 30 team (in Standford) and 3 Top 40.  The SEC has 9 Teams in the Top 40.

Fact is, Weeden faced no one.  He destroyed really bad defenses, like Kansas and Baylor.  In his 3 Games against Top 40 Defenses, he only had one stellar game, and two solid games.  Imagine him against a Top 20, much less the #1.

You throw 3 INT's on Alabama, I say "Happens.  Best Defense.  Going to throw picks."  You throw 3 against ULL and ISU?

He played a cream puff schedule, dominated weak teams, and didn't light up Oklahoma or Texas.  Now, had he done to Oklahoma and Texas what he did to Stanford, he's looking better... but he didn't.  Had he done to a Top 20 or Top 10 D what he did to Oklahoma or Texas, even better.

He hasn't been tested, he isn't proven.  RGIII threw for 425 to Weeden's 274 head to head. In that game, Weeden faced the 117th Scoring Defense while RGIII was faced with the 61st Scoring Defense.  Also, OSU was 1st in Turnovers on the year.  So I expect Weeden to go 3/ TD/INT, and it makes sense RGIII went 1/2.  

RGIII played the better D and went off for 33 of 50 for 425 with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Weeden played one of the worst Defenses in the NCAA and went 24 of 36 for 274 with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.  There is a reason RGIII is coveted over Weeden.

I'm not saying he won't be an NFL QB.  I'm saying, at his age to be a NFL Rookie at QB we only have 1 Reference Point, Chris Weinke.  There is absolutely no upside to Weeden, due to age.  He's as polished as he is going to get and probably past the point of improving arm strength by much.  And he played no one.  Of the 3 good Ds he faced, he put up great numbers on 1.

lbsouth1 wrote: as some lame prospect AND a 29 year old rookie.  He's the latter but he's not the former. 


Weeden is a poor man's Troy Aikman with much better colllegiate seasoning.  He's got a compact delivery, he's more athletic, can make all the throws, makes quick decisions, is way ahead of the game in regards to changing plays at the LOS. 

It wasn't that long ago when teams drafted 22 -23 year old collegiate QBs with every intention of sitting them 3 or 4 years. So drafting a 28 year old isn't like drafting a 38 year old.  It's unusual for this day and age, but not at all out of the norm for the NFL history. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUbkSR4wtWI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...feature=related



And Weeden will not be there at 37.

SD:

He's two years beyong the average shelf life of an NFL player and he hasn't even played a down yet .

The first time Ray Lewis puts an NFL lick on him , the pieces will fly all the way back to your digs in Texas .

Social security won't even insure him and he'll bankrupt the NFL pension plan collecting his  retirement check , before he gets his first paycheck .

Other than that its a great idea to invest your future in a guy who won't have a clue to running an NFL offense until he's thirty  ..

Brilliant brilliant plan , sign me up for this joke  it will match the bozo's running this circus perfectly


SoulDawg

Sorry, but ur information is plain wrong.   In 2011 the Texas D was 9th.  OU was 12.  A&M was 27.  KState was 19.  He hung 38, 44, 30 and 52 on them. 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef2011




In 2010 vs OU the 4th rated D.  Nebraska the 5th rated D.  A&M the 19th rated D.  Texas the 30th D.

He put up 41 pts, 41 pts, 38 pts and 33 pts. 


In 2010 Cam Newton played these top SEC defenses.  Miss St (12), S Car twice (26), Kentucky (83), Ark (18), LSU (9), Miss (50), Georgia (53), Ala (16).  So the SEC isn't always as tough as U make it out to be. 

Newton put up these numbers against top 20 ranked D's. 
(12) Miss St - 17.
(15) Clemson - 25
(18) Ark - 65 
(9) LSU - 14
(16 )Ala - 28
(3) Oregon ranked 3rd in D - 22

Newton too put up his best #s against the also rans too.  It's the same for all of the great college QBs.  Cam put up 52, 35, 37, 51, 49 and 56 against the 61st, 26th, 83rd, 50th, 53rd, 26th ranked D's.  The fact is he destroyed the lesser rans and never weres. 


And if U want to compare their careers against the best;  against top 10 defenses in the country, Weeden's team averaged 41 points.   Newton's team averaged 18.


I'll let U do the math on the rest.  But U will be very surprised when U find out how Weeden measured up against the very best of the very best.

Scoring Defense (the only Defense that matters).  Are you pulling off of Yardage?  I see, off of DFEI Ratings.

As I stated, OSU did not face the first Top 25 Scoring Defense.  Not a single team that was Top 25 at keeping POINTS off the board.

Go by Yardage and you'll get another set of numbers as well.  All I care about is if you stop teams from scoring.  After all, OSU was #1 in Take Aways... and still 60-something in Scoring D... so obviously taking the ball away didn't help them keep points off the board that much.

Using the 2010 numbers of the SEC, I still see only 1 Team Cam faced out of the Top 50 (Kentucky).  One.  In Conference how many did Weeden face this year out of the Top 50?  He had the 117th and 120th IN HIS CONFERENCE.

As you show, Cam blew up the 26th D not once but twice, and ran through the 50th and 53rd.  These were the average teams he faced, do a median on Weeden and you are in the 70's.  

I showed where Weeden dominated teams that gave up points, but didn't have a hi-light game against 2 of the best 3 D's he faced last season, and he didn't play any special defenses.  He didn't hang 65 on a solid Arkansas defense (18th by your numbers) or even 28 on a 16th (Alabama).  Suddenly 4 and 5 TD games weren't happening, though he was much more careful with the ball (1 INT over those 3 'Big D Games') and his yardage fell way off.

So, I disagree that Weeden put up 41 on a Top 10 Defense... he put up 38 on a Defense that was 33rd in giving up Points at 22.2 a game.  Baylor put up 48 on the same D.  Oklahoma put up 55.

Versus Texas, Weeden went 23 of 41 for 218 Yards with 1 TD and 0 INT.  38 scored.
Versus Texas, RG III went 15 of 22 for 320 Yards with 2 TD and 1 INT.  48 scored.
Versus Texas, Landry Jones went 31 of 50 for 367 Yards, 3 TD and 0 INT.  55 scored.

Weeden had the 3rd best Conference game against Texas, RGIII and Landry Jones put up better numbers and lead the team to more points.  There is a reason Texas was 33rd in Defensive Scoring, they weren't that good at stopping teams from scoring.

Again, give me one team that can be considered a top Scoring Defense that Weeden did any damage to.  We have to drop to 30-50 Range to get there.  He only lit one up, though it was the best one he faced and he got OT and 3 Blackmon TD's to do it.

He is completely over rated, is already at his ceiling, and has about 4 legit years to play NFL QB.

Scoring defense is the one that's completely misleading.  It gives equal credit if U give up 10 points to a D2 team or a conference game against a top team. 

The defensive ranking I used weighs all of the variables that determine the strength of a defense. 

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

• DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's defense.
• DE: Defensive Efficiency, the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's defense, a measure of the actual drive success of its opponents against expected drive success based on field position.
• FD: First Down rate, the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in at least one first down or touchdown.
• AY: Available Yards, yards earned by the opponent offense divided by the total number of yards available based on starting field position.
• Ex: Explosive Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense's drives that average at least 10 yards per play.
• Me: Methodical Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense's drives that run 10 or more plays.
• Va: Value Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense's drives beginning on their own side of the field that reach at least the team's 30-yard line.
• DSOS: Defensive Strength of Schedule, the likelihood that an elite defense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average DE rating against each of the offenses faced.

And if U will look at the game vs Texas which I just happened to watch, the reason Weeden's passing stats were only average is because he kept audibling to runs, twice catching Texas in a blitz for long TD runs and over 200 rushing.  They also got a KO return for a TD which is a drive where U don't need to pass. 

poppa9601 wrote: Not discounting Weeden, in fact I like the guy. But wether he's available at 37 is yet to be seen.

FAcy with where PM and Flynn end up will tell the tell on Weeden and how high he goes.

Manning to Miami and Flynn to Seattle, who's left to draft a QB?

Unless the Cards dump Kolb, they won't take a QB in the first. And if they do rid themselves of Kolb.....I can even say it, but you know what I mean.

And if Tannehill is there at 22, do the Browns take him?

Weeden could fall a long way, just depends.

SD:

He has value with our fourth from Atlanta , thats a gimme , and thats where you take chances on throw away picks .


The Browns would do better and give Ozzie that fourth for Flaccos backup ,,
yeah I know it will never happen  because Ozzie is to damn smart ..just saying they got a better pick in last years fourth than we can get now in the first , which makes missing on RG3 all the worse.


SoulDawg

SoulDawg

how would Weeden have done against the Big 10? OSU, Michigan, Mich State, etc.

Unless the kid is the next coming of manning, I don't see the upside to drafting his age. Teams used to like to sit guys for three years, but once they hit that fourth year they've been in the system for three years. Not still a rookie. I hope he goes in the first because if he falls past the first you Holgrems hands will start to get itchy and break out into a flop sweat because he automatically is staring at "huge value".

While this seems a very valid Index, I don't like one thing in it.  Now, Alabama still finished #1 in this Index as well, so it didn't hurt them to badly... but take the Georgia Southern game.

Georgia Southern is a D-II team.  A really great D-II, but I still don't excuse Michigan for dropping the game to Appalachian State either.  Now, two factors.  We put GSU on the schedule when they were a Passing Team... new HC/OC comes in and suddenly they are Triple Option.  The whole point of GSU was to mimic the Air Raid of a Big XII or some Pac12 teams, since we don't get a lot of that in the SEC.  They were there for a very specific reason.  (Again, no excuses, they played very well and deserve the credit).

They come out in a Triple Option, a very hard Offense to stop when executed properly.  Now, this is the DC's and HC's fault at the Capstone.  They shouldn't have looked over these guys and assumed things hadn't changed until the game week.  By week 3 they should have seen the change, and been ready to teach proper keys and reads.  They failed.  GSU executed very well, exploited the D.

But here is the main point.  Against GSU we only used starters at the very beginning.  We don't want to risk injury (after losing Brodie Croyle in week 3 his Junior year to a low team) like we have before in these games.  We took guys like Upshaw, Hightower and Barron out early with many others following shortly after.  It's a D-II team... we're going to win, we aren't going to risk guys trying to make it look bad.

In other words, the 24 points GSU put up (the most the Tide allowed all season) doesn't matter.  Yet, this Index is going to take the fact that is was a D-II school and penalize the Tide even more than the PPGA does.

Look at Florida.  Comes out, and on the 2nd play throws a long TD down the left sideline.  What did they do after that?  I believe the very next week the exact same thing happens, a quick play action and another deep bomb.

Now, the Defense dominated in that game.  Your Index is going to show how well they dominated.  Still, I look at it like Alabama shouldn't have allowed that 'One Big Play'.  The idea of the Defense is to keep points off the board.  It is Job #1.  Sure, things like winning Field Position so they settle for FG's instead of TD's and Punts instead of FG's matter.  Absolutely.  But at the end of the day you Win by scoring more, and it's easier to score more if you allow less.  The Defense is meant to Allow Less than your Offense can Score.  The defenses that allow the least, those are the best.

I appreciate you putting up the FEI (DFEI), and I will certainly be looking into it.  It's like WHIP being more important than ERA (which I get).  It's new to me, and until I get a better understanding of it to see how it truly works (took me 4 years to accept WHIP over ERA!  LOL!) I will stick with my Scoring Defense.

Just a question, do you take Yardage over Scoring on Defensive Rankings?  Most places will cite Defensive Rank on Yardage.

That is the point of my questioning.  We get on MAC QBs all the time because they didn't play quality talent.  Yet we let that slide in a year where the Big XII was the most atrocious of the 'Big Boy Conferences'?  Weeden played absolutely no one worth mentioning Defensively.  

Does this alone mean Weeden won't be a good player?  Not at all.  We have MAC QB's doing just fine in the NFL now.  Not many, but enough to merit that the MAC (and really any Conference) with a top QB gets a serious look.

What I like about Weeden is that he stepped up in his biggest game, Stanford.  Even though Luck put up the better numbers (4 incomplete passes?  WOW!) Weeden didn't buckle.  Major props for that.  Still, it was Stanford.  While the best D they played, not on par with the top 25% of the SEC defenses, or the best Big Ten defenses.  A solid team, no doubt... one of the better Balanced teams in the NCAA last year... but not a Defensive Power House.

What I don't like... 3 INT's against ULL, 3 INT's and a loss against ISU.  4 games with Multiple INT's against inferior Defenses.  Against Oklahoma and Texas he didn't shine.  He played well, managed the games.  These were not bad games at all.  Against Alabama or LSU I would call these good games (like Alabama in the NC Game, not huge numbers but 66% and 0 INT's against the #2 Defense in the Nation, along with 200+ Yards... against that Defense that is a Good game).  Weeden put up those kinds of numbers... but not against that kind of Defense.  Texas and Oklahoma weren't horrible Defenses... they also weren't what we are used to from those guys.  If he had nailed Oklahoma and Texas like he played against Stanford, I'd give him more credit.

The Combine will do a lot for this kid.  If you can make the throws, you can make the throws.  That's huge.  Some guys can make the reads, won't wilt under pressure... but can't hit the 15 Yard Out.  If Weeden can make all the throws... he's got a shot.  I just don't think he's been tested enough to deserve all the love he's been given.

Put him in the SEC... how many yards does he throw for now?  How many Sacks does he take, Interceptions does he throw?  Week in and week out facing Top 25 Defenses, Top 50 Defenses... instead of topping out at Top 40 and usually facing 70's (when not facing 4 teams in the Bottom 20 100-120).

I believe in Value... if we can take Weeden in the 3rd or 4th I won't bat an eye.  If he does well in competition, awesome.  If he beats McCoy out, great (as long as he beats McCoy out because he is actually better).  Becomes the next Tom Brady, awesome.  

If he's an upgrade for 2-3 years until we get the Franchise QB, then it's a win pick.  If he becomes a legit Franchise, we struck gold.  If he busts, hey... it was a 3rd or 4th.

I'd rather take a LaMichael James or Joe Adams in the 3rd or 4th... but wouldn't slit my wrists at a QB (even Weeden) at that point.

There is no perfect solution to compare teams that don't all play in a same league against the same level of competition. 

But look how far U had to go to create a scenerio where the matches aren't better than either Scoring OR Yardage allowed alone. 


Meatchicken / Appalachian St was what 6 years ago?

And individual plays that may not be accounted for? 

This system is far better IMO than either scoring or yardage.  Too many variables left out in those.  In fact all the variables except scoring or yardage are left out.

I like how you post argumentative even when we agree. :D

I'd take Weeden surely in the 4th (if Joe Adams or LaMichael James isn't still there), and possibly in the 3rd if the previous picks make sense to do so.  I'd be fine with that.  We better hit on the picks prior to Weeden, though.

And saying 'What would he do in the SEC' is saying he couldn't take an NFL hit.  He didn't face the first Upshaw all season.  Gino Terretto looked really good at #1 Miami back in '91... then he faced the best Defense in the Nation and looked like a shocked little school girl.  

Which QB did Gino look like in the NFL... the Heisman Winner or the QB that showed up against the Tide?  He looked like the QB that showed up against the Tide.

And I'm not saying it has to be an SEC Defense you beat and look good against, plenty of Big Ten and Big XII Defenses have rose to the ranks of being a great Defense and had Weeden took one of those down then I'd give him some credit.

He beat absolutely no great defenses, didn't face the first great Pass Rusher to see if he can take the hit or even better avoid it, didn't show he could make the quick read under great pressure or that he can hit a small window (meaning having good coverage by a good player).  He showed zilch other than he sure can light up some pansies.  

Add his Age on top of that, and you and I completely agree on this kid.  The difference is I might take him in the 3rd, where you wouldn't touch him until the 4th.